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Going Forward

Updated: Jul 20, 2023

Yes, this really was released by the White House last week:

In other words, even if this Thursday’s GDP number reflects a second quarter of declining economic activity-- the classic definition of a recession— it is not a recession until the White House gives the economists on its payroll permission to declare it a recession. Got that?


This week’s calendar is absolutely loaded. We’ll get earnings reports from big names like Microsoft, Alphabet and Apple. The Fed is likely to increase the fed funds rate by another 75 basis points. And then we get jobless claims and GDP data on Thursday.

As oil prices plummeted in June, the likelihood of a recession dramatically increased (which makes sense because the only reason gas prices have come down is a total destruction of demand). The widely watched Atlanta Fed GDP Now is tracking at a decline of 1.6% in GDP for the second quarter, and a strong dollar means we'll probably see more S&P companies miss sales estimates. I don’t think of any of the data from this week will be altogether constructive for stocks.

Our view remains that it’s prudent to sell rallies like that of last week, for we are still in the confines of a bear market. From a seasonal perspective, August has been the worst performing month for the S&P 500 (-0.39%) with September not far behind (-0.19%). We believe investors should look to inflation and potential shifts in the Fed’s stance to find the current market’s bottom, and we really don’t foresee that coming out of this week.


This time is NOT different, as illustrated by this 14 year old episode of the hilarious Clarke and Dawe:

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