“Am I in earth, in heaven, or in hell?
Sleeping or waking, mad or well-advised?
Known unto these and to myself disguised?
I'll say as they say, and persevere so,
And in this mist at all adventures go.”
William Shakespeare, A Comedy of Errors
(Antipholus of Syracuse, Act 2 Scene 2)
Are you better off than you were four years ago? It’s a question we’re hearing a lot this election season, but there’s another one that’s getting thrown around quite a bit… Are you better off than you were three years ago?
The quandary for voters is that the answer to both questions is an emphatic no. 2020 kicked off the most insane comedy of errors we’ve ever seen, and it never stopped.
In late November 2019, it was known at the highest levels of the Chinese Communist Party that something awful was brewing in Wuhan, and it wasn’t much later that it became clear to them that they had a new type of coronavirus on their hands. We knew it here in the United States, too, yet we allowed for more than 10,000 Chinese residents a day to fly directly to the United States for a period between late November and Trump’s travel ban on January 31, 2020.
In March 2020, a cruise ship left Ft. Lauderdale bound for Italy, and of course, Covid spread across the ship like wildfire. The ship went to Marseille, where passengers were first locked into buses for five hours before being shoved onto a flight to Atlanta— the home of the Center for Disease Control (CDC). The comedy of errors became even more evident when the pilot reported upon landing in Atlanta that, despite numerous distress calls-- because people were keeling over left and right-- “Well, apparently, nobody knew we were coming.” Only a small portion of the passengers were tested in Atlanta. Instead, most of them were dropped off at the baggage claim where they were free to run amok at the food court in the busiest airport in the world and then get on more airplanes to fly home. …It almost makes you wonder if Jackson-Hartsfield was being run by the CCP.
Draconian lockdowns were then put into effect. Schools were shut down, and those who pointed out that such lockdowns would do our kids more harm than good were shamed. Comedy of errors.
I saw people sitting inside of their cars watching the sunset who got ticketed by Sheriff officers for not being at home, and when I stopped and yelled out my window to the officers that that was bulls**t, I was told that I would be next if I didn’t leave immediately. (So, I parked and told ‘em to do it. Lots of head shaking.) Of course, I was driving home from the grocery store and had my mask:
We shut down the ocean, and even when beaches opened up, we were told to wear masks there. Ever seen a surfer wearing a mask?
Empty Malibu after a lone surfer was arrested
In April 2020 and for many months after that, we were still talking about the possibility of Covid being leaked from the Wuhan lab as a Steve Bannon-backed conspiracy theory, which we now know was not a conspiracy theory at all. Comedy of errors.
We hoarded toilet paper at $10 a roll and emptied store shelves of any and all disinfectants. It was all a comedy of errors …or the greatest psyop of all time.
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The onset of Covid 19 was, of course, a black swan event, which is why the question, “Are you better off than you were three years ago?” is being thrown around, and the answer for most people is still no.
We can start with the Covid vaccines that don’t prevent either catching Covid or spreading it. President Biden mandated the vaccines for employees with companies over 100 people, and throughout most of 2021, one couldn’t enter a restaurant in New York without showing a vaccine card.
And Aaron Rodgers.
So, the comedy of errors with regard to Covid extended well into 2021. However, the comedy of errors over the last three years has continued far beyond reactions to the coronavirus. Between January 2010 and January 2021, the price index for food consumed at home increased by less than 18 percent in 11 years, but it has increased by 21 percent in just the last three years.
Over the last three years, the Fed has allowed the money supply to increase by 40 percent. M2 has increased from $15.5 trillion in 2020 to over $22 trillion today. The Treasury has been printing money like it’s toilet paper, and the Fed has added to its balance sheet by purchasing over $5 trillion in mortgage backed and Treasury securities.
The national debt has ballooned by 24% in the last three years and is now well north of $34 TRILLION.
In February 2023, The CDC released a study that found an "unprecedented level of hopelessness" and suicidal thoughts among the nation's youth, and the number of kids under the age of 17 reporting gender dysphoria increased 70% between 2020 and 2021. This comedy of errors has failed our children miserably.
The number of Americans living paycheck to paycheck has increased dramatically over the last three years:
Flows into Serious Delinquency (90 days or more delinquent) for mortgages, auto loans and credit card debt is surging. We have drained the Strategic Petroleum Reserve down to levels not seen in 40 years, and we drained more than 40% of it in 2022 alone. Interest rates have skyrocketed, and housing is more unaffordable than ever. More than 2.3 million people have illegally entered our country over the last three years. We’re currently fighting something like 15 shadow wars. It’s all just a comedy of errors.
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This may be the single most contentious election season in the history of our nation. That doesn’t mean stocks can’t continue to rip. Sure, it might be a little bouncy, but let’s face it— the stock market’s performance over the last several years has been a total highlight, despite the unnerving volatility of 2022. You probably see the events of the last several years differently than I do, or differently than your neighbors, or differently than your friends in other countries. That’s ok. Just stick to your plan, and tune out the static.
We’re just entering the stock market’s “off period.” The old Wall Street adages “Sell in May and go away” and “Buy on Rosh Hoshana and sell on Passover” exist for a reason. The historical pattern was first popularized by the Stock Trader's Almanac, which found investing in stocks from November to April and switching into fixed income the other six months would have "produced reliable returns with reduced risk since 1950."
The divergence has remained intact in recent years, too; according to Fidelity Investments, the S&P 500 index has gained an average of about 2% from May to October since 1990, compared with an average of approximately 7% from November to April.
September is notoriously the worst month of the year for stocks, and this election year seems ripe for an “October surprise.” Think Russia was involved in the last election? Putin could easily send oil over a $100 a barrel over the course of just a few weeks with the push of a button. Think Biden will be replaced as the Democrat candidate? Keep an eye on Gavin Newsom and Michelle Obama. Think the Fed will lower interest rates this June? I don’t, but keep an eye on the months thereafter.
I know who I’m voting for, but I understand why others might choose “the other guy.” Life is not black and white, and it’s unwise to let emotions rule our relationships or our investing. Eight months from now, at Thanksgiving with your friends and loved ones, you’ll probably sit around a table surrounded by people who disagree with you, perhaps vehemently, and that’s ok. Hopefully, you’ll all be richer, for while their portfolios probably look different than yours, there are lots of ways to make money.
“And now let’s go hand in hand, not one before another.”
William Shakespeare, A Comedy of Errors
(Dromio of Ephesus, Act 5 Scene 1)
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